Storm Surges and Extreme Wind Waves in the Caspian Sea in the Present and Future Climate

The Caspian Sea is of particular interest. Against the background long-term sea level changes, low-lying coastal areas in northern part are subject to constant flooding as a result storm surges. elongation meridional direction allows development strong waves middle and southern parts. A comprehensive understanding characteristics surges especially important context ongoing climate change. This study devoted analysis for time period from 1979 up 2017 wind 2020 region. circulation model ADCIRC wave WAVEWATCH III with pressure forcing NCEP/CFSR reanalysis were used. modeling performed on different unstructured grids spacings 500–900 m zone. Mean extreme values surges, parameters activity provided research. maximum significant height whole was 8.2 m. average SWH did not exceed 1.1 No trends found. surge 2.7 interannual variability surges' occurrence showed that 7–10 more than 1 meter detected every year. total duration these 20–30 days per Assessment risks carried out by calculating return periods: 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 years. 100-year close 3 m, big located along eastern western coasts. forecast made recurrence 21st century based climatic scenarios CMIP5. statistically increase be expected near future, but severe. Doi: 10.28991/CEJ-2022-08-11-01 Full Text: PDF